maandag 1 augustus 2016

Save the planet? See proportions and causations

If we want to preserve the planet for humanity, we first need to understand the proportions of forces involved and the cause-and-effect chains between those forces.
The number of children per family decreases when women get more literate. We see that while in the world the number of literate women increases, the growth of population decreases.
But along with a growing level of education there is a growing level of consumption, economic growth being accelerated by literacy.
Now, because in the world, consumption growth is three times faster than population growth, consumption growth is three times more dangerous than population growth for the preservation of the planet.
Although the western economy puts an extremely high pressure on the physical environment, quite fortunately its growth is slowing down to 0-2 %. This stability may not only exists because of the current financial and economic crisis, but remain as a structural phenomenon.
But the reduction of western production and consumption is most important if we want to avoid the depletion and pollution of the planet before it has reached a point of no return.
At the same time economic growth in Asian countries is high, up to 5-6% even. If there is a slowing down of this growth rate it may not be structural but more part of the wave movement of capitalism and return to 5-6% again.
The main question to answer here is about a timely decrease of this economic growth before the depletion and pollution of the planet has reached a point of no return.
Meanwhile, nearly one billion poor people in Asia, Africa and Latin America are eagerly trying to join the growing economies in their countries.
Here the main question is about a timely start of consumption growth and a following timely stabilizing of consumtion among those near billion poor millions.
Environmentally friendly technologies (EFTs) have their positive contributions. New cars, for instance, use less energy and exhaust less polluting gasses. But the number of cars grows fast, by far undoing the benefit of greener car technology.
EFTs reduce but do not prevent the negative effects of economic growth on the physical environment. For decades we see a steady increase of global warming, depletion of fossil fuels, groundwater, ocean fish stock and forest cover, and pollution of air, water, soil and food.
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